您的当前位置:首页 > 私募资讯 > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-05-19 05:51:42 来源:网络整理 编辑:私募资讯
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
10月31日前海开源睿远稳健增利混合A净值下跌0.12%,近1个月累计下跌1.07%2025-05-19 21:10
以太坊怎么卖2025-05-19 21:09
10月31日银华心怡灵活配置混合C净值下跌0.47%,近1个月累计上涨0.5%2025-05-19 21:01
矿工管家怎么挖矿 矿工管家怎么挖矿的2025-05-19 20:43
币赢网交易平台规则2025-05-19 20:23
10月31日华富健康文娱灵活配置混合A净值增长0.89%,近3个月累计上涨4.41%2025-05-19 20:12
苹果手机怎么下聚币网2025-05-19 20:07
10月31日诺德新盛灵活配置混合C净值下跌0.45%,近1个月累计上涨1.23%2025-05-19 19:41
Uniswap 价格暴跌,但 UNI 多头拒绝退缩:原因如下2025-05-19 19:16
比太钱包安全吗2025-05-19 18:55
BVNK获Visa Ventures投资扩展稳定币支付基础设施2025-05-19 20:44
今天比特币暴涨-更新比特币今日的涨幅情况2025-05-19 20:09
公积金贷款银行面签-公积金贷款银行面签后多久放款下来2025-05-19 20:07
股票、比特币和黄金逼近历史高点,市场情绪高涨2025-05-19 19:53
什么时候开始全球变暖2025-05-19 19:45
比特币交易平台前十名 2025年5月最新比特币平台名单2025-05-19 19:39
台风除名是什么意思2025-05-19 19:11
10月31日鹏华新能源精选混合C净值增长0.74%,近3个月累计上涨23.85%2025-05-19 19:05
比特币app排行榜 权威盘点2025-05-19 18:35
10月31日上银价值增长3个月持有期混合A净值下跌0.08%,近1个月累计下跌4.03%2025-05-19 18:34